2026 Housing Market — Big Picture (National Data from NAR & Forecasts)

🏡 2026 Housing Market — Big Picture (National Data from NAR & Forecasts)

• According to National Association of Realtors (NAR), existing-home sales are expected to jump ~14% in 2026. National Association of REALTORS®+2Floor Covering News+2

• NAR further forecasts that home prices nationwide will climb around 4% in 2026, driven by job growth and persistent supply constraints. National Association of REALTORS®+1

• At the same time, national 30-year fixed mortgage rates are expected to ease slightly — average around 6% — improving affordability compared with recent peak years of near-7%. RealEstateNews.com+2James Moore+2

• While some forecasters predict modest price gains nationally (e.g. ~1% per Redfin), the general consensus among a number of analysts is toward a “recovery + stability” scenario rather than a crash. Redfin+2HousingWire+2

What this means for buyers overall: 2026 may bring a more balanced market than 2022–2024. Slightly lower mortgage rates + stabilized price growth + improving inventory could open opportunities for many buyers — but prices won’t collapse. Entry-level buyers will still need strong financial readiness.

📍 Local Focus: What’s Happening in Wake County, NC

Pulling from the latest local market data and regional forecasts — here’s what buyers in Wake County should know heading into 2026:

• As of late 2025, median home values in Wake County hover around $478,240, down about 2.3% over the prior year. Zillow

• That said, depending on neighborhood and home type, there is variation. For example, median listing prices in some parts of the county (as of 2025) are around $490K, with per-square-foot pricing near $230–$231. Realtor+1

• Some forecasts for 2026 expect modest local appreciation of ~3–5% for Wake County — slightly above the national 4% estimate by NAR — though tempered by modest inventory growth. Martini Mortgage Group+2Florida Realtors+2

• Inventory remains tighter than in many large metro areas, but recent data suggests homes are staying on the market longer than peak-2021/2022 — giving buyers a bit more leverage. Redfin+2Brazoban+2

What this means for local buyers: Wake County remains competitive, but the 2026 forecast points toward a more balanced playing field. For buyers willing to act — especially if they’re flexible on timing or property type — there may be real opportunity before pricing picks up again.

💡 Key Buyer Trends & What to Watch

• With national rates expected to ease, more buyers — particularly “move-up” or first-time buyers — may feel ready to enter the market. That said, affordability remains a challenge in many desirable areas, including parts of Wake.

• As home values flatten or grow modestly, trade-offs may shift toward prioritizing lifestyle factors: commuting distance, schools, amenities, new-construction vs. resale value — rather than purely investment-driven buying (given slower price jumps).

• Inventory and selection could improve modestly in 2026 (especially if new construction in Wake County delivers), but expect competition to remain — especially in high-demand towns/suburbs.

• For buyers working with care teams (agents, lenders), smart timing and readiness remain key — market dynamics lean toward a balanced, but not buyer-heavy, environment.

🧭 What This Means for You (as a Wake County Buyer/Agent)

If you’re buying in 2026:

• Strike while mortgage rates dip — if you’re financially ready, modest easing could create a window before prices resume growth.

• Be strategic about inventory and timing — narrower but improving supply could reward buyers who are ready to act fast once they find a good listing.

• Focus on long-term value — in a stable/slow-growth market, things like resale stability, neighborhood quality, commute, growth potential may matter more than short-term flips.

• Use local market insights — Wake County’s diversity (towns, suburbs, price ranges) means local data and guidance are more valuable than national headlines.

If you like — I can build you a full “2026 Wake County Buyer Checklist” (with ~8–12 action items drawn from current data + forecast) that you could use for your clients. Want me to build that now?